Red nova in 2022
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by Budgieye moderator
Dwarf star system to become bright as a 2nd or 3rd magnitutde star. So if you don't know your constellations, you might not notice it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KIC_9832227
http://earthsky.org/space/star-predicted-to-explode-in-2022
Molnar et al. (2015) suggested that KIC 9832227 is a contact binary
star in its final years before merging and producing a red nova
eruption. Analysis of light curves spanning 1999 to 2014 showed a
negative time derivative and second derivative of the orbital period.
The timing data were found to be well fit by the empirical exponential
formula that Tylenda et al. (2011) used to describe preoutburst data
of V1309 Sco. While it could not be concluded that this was the
correct interpretation of the data, the prediction made for the near
future was specific and falsifiable. We will present light curve data
from 2015-2016 which is consistent with the extrapolation of the
previous fit. As predicted, the period derivative now exceeds the
range measured for other contact systems. Reanalysis of the Kepler
spacecraft timing data shows a low amplitude modulation consistent
with a third star with an orbital period of 1.7 y and msin i = 0.11
solar masses. We will also present spectroscopic data that show the
signature of both binary components. These data rule out the presence
of any additional main sequence stars with mass greater than 0.4 solar
masses. Based on an updated fit to the exponential formula, we now
estimate the time of merger to be the year 2022.2 with a random
uncertainty of 0.6 years. These results greatly strengthen the
original suggestion. The system presents an unprecedented opportunity
to study the mechanism of stellar merger through targeted observations
of a precursor. Molnar, L. et al. (2015), AAS Meeting #225, id.415.05.
Tylenda, R., et al. (2011), AA, 528, A114.http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AAS...22941704M
http://simbad.u-strasbg.fr/simbad/sim-basic?Ident=KIC+9832227&submit=SIMBAD+search
Pan STARRS image
map http://earthsky.org/space/star-predicted-to-explode-in-2022
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